CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-07-04T04:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-07-04T04:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25808/-1
CME Note: Complex partial halo CME comprised of multiple embedded fronts seen mostly south in SOHO/STEREO A coronagraphs but brightest in STEREO A COR2. The CME appears to contain a wide bulk and a very wide faint shock present in the northeast. Likely associated with an eruption near the vicinity of AR3359 (S22E24) seen best as a spray in SDO 193/171 starting shortly before 03:00Z as well as large-scale brightening in SDO 304 seen near 04:00Z. A broad area of large-scale post-eruptive arcades are seen back towards the northeast after the eruption, particularly in SDO 193. Data gaps due to a STEREO A campaign limits analysis of this event. No clear CME arrivals on July 6-8.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-07T04:01Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 635.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 390.405 Acceleration: 1.51833 Duration in seconds: 257122.46 Duration in days: 2.9759544 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.52 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 780.8 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 07/07/2023 Time: 04:01 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 20.58 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2023-07-06T07:26Z
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